[Liah]

How much more opportunity do you all think there is in sites like facebook, couchsurfing.com, prosper.com and all the rest of the sites that bring people together to make exchanges (social, monetary, place to stay). The idea has been around for awhile, and I think people have been busy coming up with permutations of it...but I've been trying to think of other human interactions that could be streamlined with this kind of site...

Is this the wave of the future , or as bad as another pixel site ?

[jpmorgan13]

I think you will see a move to niche social communities and away from broad communities like myspace. Providing people ways to interact is really what the web is all about.

[akula]

Originally Posted by Liah

How much more opportunity do you all think there is in sites like facebook, couchsurfing.com, prosper.com and all the rest of the sites that bring people together to make exchanges (social, monetary, place to stay). The idea has been around for awhile, and I think people have been busy coming up with permutations of it...but I've been trying to think of other human interactions that could be streamlined with this kind of site...

Is this the wave of the future , or as bad as another pixel site ?

It's complicated...everything in IT is a fad, living inside a bigger fad, which in it self lives in an even bigger fad. The sole differnece between the fads is their life span. If it's short - it's a fad, if it's longer (compared to a shorter one) - it's the wave of the future.

In early stage IT, the difference between a fad and the wave of the future is rarely more than a 12 month period....because everything becomes obsolete very quickly.

Let's try an example:

e.g. MyPotatoes.com It helps people buy potatoes. The start up is riding these fads:

Fad 1 = India
Fad 2 = SaaS
Fad 3 = Mobile
Fad 4 = Consumer Internet

All of this equals doing a mobile, consumer internet start up in India. It allows people to buy potatoes through their friends using a mobile phone and a wicked AJAX GUI. Because the startup is riding so many trends - people call it the wave of the future. Compare MyPotatoes.com to a corner shop in Kansas. They also sell potatoes. They've been doing it for years. They allow people to do the same thing as MyPotatoes.com, yet you could hardly call them the wave of the future.

So....to directly answer your question. To work out if sites like facebook, couchsurfing.com, prosper.com are fads or waves of the future, we need to seperate them out and calculate how many complementary fads apply to each one of these companies.

At any rate; the answer might be more useful if I know your context.

Are you looking for investment opportunities in IT?

btw: i think you have a lovely name

[Liah]

What made me think of it was that I have been trying to understand the trends currently going on and have been looking at all these sites...it struck me that they are starting to look like they are all cut from the same cloth.

I'm not really thinking about starting a business in this vein, starting in September I will be going on vacation...for a year! Traveling the world to be exact. So I'm not really serious about starting a business right now even if I found an awesome opportunity. I mostly just think it will be interesting to see how things evolve and what people will do to innovate from here. Something will eventually happen that will turn our current ideas on their heads and everyone will scramble to figure out all the permutations of that change.

btw: i think you have a lovely name

Thanks! my mom tells me it means "open field".

[akula]

Originally Posted by Liah

What made me think of it was that I have been trying to understand the trends currently going on and have been looking at all these sites...it struck me that they are starting to look like they are all cut from the same cloth.

I'm not really thinking about starting a business in this vein, starting in September I will be going on vacation...for a year! Traveling the world to be exact. So I'm not really serious about starting a business right now even if I found an awesome opportunity. I mostly just think it will be interesting to see how things evolve and what people will do to innovate from here. Something will eventually happen that will turn our current ideas on their heads and everyone will scramble to figure out all the permutations of that change.

Thanks! my mom tells me it means "open field".

Yeah...don't worry about all these bussinessy thinds. Check out http://ben.casnocha.com/2006/03/friend_of_ben_w.html .... it's a wonderful read....it always inspires me to go travelling.

Well...if you're interested in this stuff...(heaven knows why!! )...I'd probably suggest you start reading Clay Christensen. If you're interested in this whole turn our current ideas on their heads thing...you'll might want to start reading Clay's books or at least listen to the podcast at http://www.itconversations.com/audio...ations-135.mp3

I guess, as a matter of encouragement, you might want to know that the subject of innovation is a large, fascinating area of social science. There's really a lot to learn, a lot to discover....and if you know some of these things, you'll have an immeasurable advantage over other entrepreneurs. In terms of starting high potential companies, knowledge is important.

So there you go...if you want to predict how people will innovate next, you'll find your answer in Clay's books.

[Liah]

Hey cool! I will definitely read Clay Christensen! Thanks for the heads up!

[NORTH]

Something in the works... let's call it BLING. HAHA.. that was really bad. Sorry I can't quite mention it yet. More soon on this social network thing.