U.S. Real estate, your forecast

**akula** · 10-25-2010 03:04 AM

So, what is everyone's Case Shiller or FHFA index forecast?
What do you forecast for housing prices 2011-2015?
Do you think now is a good time to buy a home?

**akula** · 10-26-2010 05:17 AM

soo..anyone in the market for housing?
lots of bargains at the moment
it's cheaper to buy now than to rent

**veikoh** · 10-26-2010 05:27 AM

I think all real estate in totally overprised. That's why I would like to live in a boat or motorhome.
Only banks think that those are worth their millions. Imagine, they cost something your 100 year salary in Europe!!!

They have long way to come down to reasonable level.

**generationy** · 10-26-2010 10:04 AM

Sounds like a classical question from CNBC. I would definitely urge any new home buyer to start buying now since the prices are lower and interest rates are more attractive than before. It really isn't a seller's market, unless you live in a high demand area, since prices have fallen a lot. Buy now! If you are in the real estate industry then you have a great chance at making a lot of money after 1 -2 years (especially if you rent it out now and sell later). Good luck!

**Gaulkin** · 10-26-2010 07:57 PM

I can only speak for Miami since real estate is all local. The lower end of the market has bottomed or very close to it, the top end of the market still has to come down alot. Most of those houses are still showing values of 2004 levels when they need to come back around to 1999 prices.

**akula** · 10-27-2010 01:28 AM

It's incredible how much U.S. housing prices have declined (particularly for lower end properties)
What's more fascinating is how much they've still got to decline
The gap gauge is forecasting that prices are set to decline by another 10% at the national level, and even more in some locations like DC.
However, other places, like Denver, Seattle etc are already 50% undervalued
Gaulkin's analysis is spot on. Lower end Miami housing is already underpriced by 10% where as the higher end properties have still gotta come down 10%

Overall, I think that towards 2012 it'll be possible to buy a two bedroom home for like $20k in some areas..
In sydney, where I'm from, the equivalent property would cost $500k

**akula** · 10-27-2010 01:29 AM

Originally Posted by generationy

Sounds like a classical question from CNBC. I would definitely urge any new home buyer to start buying now since the prices are lower and interest rates are more attractive than before. It really isn't a seller's market, unless you live in a high demand area, since prices have fallen a lot. Buy now! If you are in the real estate industry then you have a great chance at making a lot of money after 1 -2 years (especially if you rent it out now and sell later). Good luck!

really great point
everyone ought to be encouraged to buy their homes at the moment
we've all got to talk up the market

**Gaulkin** · 10-27-2010 12:47 PM

Originally Posted by akula

It's incredible how much U.S. housing prices have declined (particularly for lower end properties)
What's more fascinating is how much they've still got to decline
The gap gauge is forecasting that prices are set to decline by another 10% at the national level, and even more in some locations like DC.
However, other places, like Denver, Seattle etc are already 50% undervalued
Gaulkin's analysis is spot on. Lower end Miami housing is already underpriced by 10% where as the higher end properties have still gotta come down 10%

Overall, I think that towards 2012 it'll be possible to buy a two bedroom home for like $20k in some areas..
In sydney, where I'm from, the equivalent property would cost $500k

My greatest fear is I wont be ready to pick up my dream home when the higher end homes here over shoot the bottom.

Another point about the higher end market is the asking prices, the mid and lower end had a pretty large gap but with the higher end home there asking a whole million and up over true value on most all the properties for sale. This disconnect can only prolong the process because they are going to throw money into there mortgages until they are broke. They really dont paint people a very good picture of just how bad it is in Miami for the higher end market.