[Drew]

I don't know about you guys, but I see tremendous potential in the gaming industry for a few reasons.

1. People are getting increasingly more free time every year and have increasingly more expendable cash. This will continue to benefit the entertainment industry in general.

2. The hardware is getting more sophisticated allowing for more realistic games. This is quickly broadening the appeal of video games, I believe. For instance, if you love hockey but never played NHL 94 because it didn't give you the hockey "feel", how can you not be attracted to the new photo-realistic graphics and full immersion gameplay?

3. The gaming industry is continually being updated. Unlike many other products, you can't simply buy one and be set forever. Games get stale, systems get old and slow, hardware breaks, etc. That means that gamers have to continually buy new stuff.

So here's the question. Where do you guys think the money will be made in the next ten years? I know EA is going to make a killing. As will Sony, Microsoft, and maybe Nintendo if they get their shit together. But what about breakthrough sub-industries? Will it be competitive online gaming? Crazy interactive hardware? Any ideas?

[Bored]

I already made a post about the gaming industry. I basically said that there is definelty a futre in the competetive gaming industry. I think hardcore gaming conventions with competetions and sponsors is going to be more plentiful in the future.

[nado]

The money won't be in selling the games... it's already a very risky industry as the developers create the game and then sell it hoping that they will actually sell enough to cover their costs.

The future:

- Lookup the term "blook". Myself and akula/Daniel had a discussion on the forums a while ago and I mentioned that this same method of producing books, music, video, and even games in this case could be applied.

- Games will be free to the consumer, absolutely FREE

- They will be funded through in-game advertisements

- Most games will be MMORPGs ... all based online. As bandwidth costs become cheaper this will definately become the norm.

- So the money won't come from selling the actual games and charging a monthly fee as such games as WoW do, but the money will come from advertisments which sill begin generating income from day 1 of game development... since the users/players will be encouraged to be involved in the game from as early on as possible in the development phase (refer to "blook" again).


Hope that helps... I'm with you I think the gaming industry will definately take off. Consoles will eventually become integrated into computers and computers integrated into media centres and media centres connected through IPTV and the Internet.

cheers
nathan

[dre]

I think it will be all about competitive gaming. The gaming industry will be like poker is now with people playing in person, online, and on television for money.

[Bored]

Originally Posted by nado

Consoles will eventually become integrated into computers and computers integrated into media centres and media centres connected through IPTV and the Internet.

cheers
nathan

True that, have you seen the Xbox360? its pretty much a computer that plays console games.

The rest of your post sounds pretty right. I babysit a lot of kids and I see what kind of games they play. All of them are free online games where they build up their charachter (like Maple Street). Of course, these young people are the future so there is a lot of truth to what you are saying.

[Karl_the_Great]

But a console is a computer.

Anywho, I think that video gaming as we know it will change dramatically in terms of interface (The Revolution controller and eyeToy are examples). How we pay for games depends on how they are made, if games like Resident Evil and Final Fantasy can be made for less than a million dollars and still be considered a "next-gen" game, then games may be offered for free in the console industry, but I don't see that happening for a long time. Advertising in games is tricky because the appeal of video games is the interactivity, if the player doesn't have a sense of control over what happens in the game, then they probably won't play it. Another problem is how would you advertise without pulling the player from out of the game; you could possibly do that by making the product a part of the story or as an item to collect, but I am not convinced that this form of advertising will generate sales. Besides, advertisements already exist in gaming and have been featured in there own games (the spot game, from 7up, and the noid?, from Domino's pizza ads).

To be honest I think the business model in gaming has to change. I think that if anything will be given for free, it would be the hardware with a monthly subscription (for software) to the hardware manufacture. The subscription would be divided among the hardware manufacture and their software partners. Which means developers will not be risking nearly as much since they have virtually guaranteed income and gamers get there games right out of the box with little to nothing else to buy. Think GameTap but for consoles....

-- Peace

[nado]

Advertising in games can still be descrete while making a big impact... e.g. you could have virtual billboards in the game etc

[Drew]

This is the exact same model that television uses. And we all know that TV doesn't make any money.

I'd be surprised if the average game costs only $1M to make. That's only 20 programmers at $50k each for a year. I'd guess at least twice that.

Originally Posted by nado

The money won't be in selling the games... it's already a very risky industry as the developers create the game and then sell it hoping that they will actually sell enough to cover their costs.

The future:

- Lookup the term "blook". Myself and akula/Daniel had a discussion on the forums a while ago and I mentioned that this same method of producing books, music, video, and even games in this case could be applied.

- Games will be free to the consumer, absolutely FREE

- They will be funded through in-game advertisements

- Most games will be MMORPGs ... all based online. As bandwidth costs become cheaper this will definately become the norm.

- So the money won't come from selling the actual games and charging a monthly fee as such games as WoW do, but the money will come from advertisments which sill begin generating income from day 1 of game development... since the users/players will be encouraged to be involved in the game from as early on as possible in the development phase (refer to "blook" again).


Hope that helps... I'm with you I think the gaming industry will definately take off. Consoles will eventually become integrated into computers and computers integrated into media centres and media centres connected through IPTV and the Internet.

cheers
nathan

[jdoc]

Try $3-6M US, and growing exponentially.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4442346.stm

[Drew]

Geez. So if the average game sells for $50 retail, how much does the game designer make? After packaging costs, distribution, and retail markup, I'd guess around $5 per copy. Let's say $10 to be generous. The cheapest games need to sell 300,000 copies to break even! Am I missing something?

No wonder game houses can't survive without a parent company.

Think about the golden age when games were between $60 and $70 and could be designed by a team of a few dozen. Those profits are still keeping Nintendo afloat.

Originally Posted by jdoc

Try $3-6M US, and growing exponentially.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4442346.stm

[nado]

Originally Posted by Drew

Geez. So if the average game sells for $50 retail, how much does the game designer make? After packaging costs, distribution, and retail markup, I'd guess around $5 per copy. Let's say $10 to be generous. The cheapest games need to sell 300,000 copies to break even! Am I missing something?

Yep, which is why the only way game companies will survive is by using all of the above mentioned methods (those mentioned by myself and others).

... Just imagine if you could create a game to the same calibre as something like WoW, but offer it completely free to anyone and everyone! ... you'd easily be pulling in 3 times as much as Blizzard currently is with WoW.