Are we experiencing a bear market rally?

**JLeezer** · 04-22-2009 12:08 PM

I was curious what others thought about whether we are experiencing a bear market rally or an actual recovery from this relatively short lived recession.

I believe this is just a small rally because there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty with the financial institutions and auto manufacturers, plus a huge number of bad mortgages that will become due over the next few months or so.

**BusinessAdviser** · 04-22-2009 12:42 PM

I think it's a rally, but we won't really know until after the fact. Either way, now's the time to invest, through dollar cost averaging, to be able to capture the huge upswing that we'll have, but that most will win because they're scared to invest, looking at every upturn as a rally rather than as a recovery.

What am I doing? Dollar cost averaging, and I've actually more than tripled my regular investment amount each week.

**byzantium** · 04-22-2009 05:20 PM

I think we're in the midst of a double bottom. When the daily DJIA chart looks like a W, the market starts to head up. Right now we're in the period between the first and second bottoms. Watch for some really awful news to drop the market back to around 6500-7000, and that's when you want to grab what you can. It's really too bad that I'm focused on my business right now, because if I had money I'd be readying myself to buy on that second bottom. Stocks will get really ridiculously cheap like they were in February.

**BusinessAdviser** · 04-22-2009 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by byzantium

I think we're in the midst of a double bottom. When the daily DJIA chart looks like a W, the market starts to head up. Right now we're in the period between the first and second bottoms. Watch for some really awful news to drop the market back to around 6500-7000, and that's when you want to grab what you can. It's really too bad that I'm focused on my business right now, because if I had money I'd be readying myself to buy on that second bottom. Stocks will get really ridiculously cheap like they were in February.

Again, I do stress that it's not about timing that bottom. What if it wasn't a W? You'd have missed the 40-50% upswing that the market has averaged in the first year from the bottom after a recession over the last 100 years. Buy now. Keep buying. Quit trying to time it.

**terrycan** · 04-23-2009 03:02 AM

Dear Jleezer

I believe we are in a bear market rally.

The DJIA will go as high as 9000-11000 the next year.

President Obama can't control what someone is willing to pay for a home.

The housing market will correct.

Right now everything is on sale. Time to buy!

Massive Success to you

Terry Cantwell

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